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Maharashtra Assembly Elections: The state’s political narrative is marked by uncertainty and volatility: BJP grappling with challenges from reinvigorated opposition alliances, Shiv Sena factions struggling to assert their legitimacy, Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) seeking to rebuild their voter base
The late 1960s and 1970s marked the rise of regionalism and the Hindutva ideology in Maharashtra. (PTI File
Photo)
Maharashtra Assembly Elections: Maharashtra, India’s second-most populous state after Uttar Pradesh, has been a microcosm of the country’s dynamic and ever-evolving political landscape.
From Congress’ post-independence dominance to the rise of Hindutva under Balasaheb Thackeray, the birth of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and the BJP’s surge under Narendra Modi, the state’s electoral politics has reflected shifting ideologies, strategic alliances, and recurring political turmoil.
Over decades, Maharashtra has witnessed a dramatic transformation that continues to shape its present and future.
Congress’ Dominance In Maharashtra
Maharashtra’s political landscape in the early years after Independence was dominated by the Congress, which played a pivotal role in shaping the state’s socio-economic policies. Leaders such as Yashwantrao Chavan and Vasantrao Naik championed agrarian reforms, industrial growth, and education, laying the groundwork for Maharashtra’s emergence as one of India’s most developed states.
The Congress maintained a stronghold in the rural heartland through its farmer-centric policies and held sway in urban centres with its emphasis on industrialisation. Vasantrao Naik’s 12-year tenure as chief minister (1963–1975), the longest in the state’s history, symbolised the party’s firm grip on power. His pragmatic leadership earned the Congress loyalty among farmers and industrialists alike. However, factionalism began to take root in the party by the late 1970s.
Leaders like Sharad Pawar challenged the central leadership, sowing the seeds of discontent and future splits.
The Rise Of Hindutva
The late 1960s and 1970s marked the rise of regionalism and the Hindutva ideology in Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena, founded by Balasaheb Thackeray in 1966, initially focused on promoting the rights of Marathi-speaking people under its “sons of the soil” agenda.
The party gained prominence in urban areas, particularly Mumbai and Thane, by appealing to the working class and those feeling marginalised by Congress’ policies.
In the 1980s, the Shiv Sena shifted its narrative, aligning itself with the Hindutva ideology amid the Ayodhya Ram Mandir movement.
Thackeray’s fiery speeches and polarising rhetoric resonated with urban lower-middle-class voters, particularly in Mumbai and Thane. The Shiv Sena’s alliance with the BJP in the late 1980s gave Hindutva a stronger foothold in Maharashtra.
The partnership culminated in their first government in 1995, with Manohar Joshi as chief minister. This was a turning point in Maharashtra’s political history, as it marked the end of decades of Congress rule.
Sharad Pawar And NCP
The Congress faced a significant blow in 1999 when Sharad Pawar, one of its tallest leaders, broke away to form the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Pawar’s departure, driven by his objection to Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin, fragmented Congress’s voter base, especially in rural Maharashtra.
The NCP quickly became a formidable regional force, leveraging Pawar’s deep connections with farmers, sugar cooperatives, and grassroots networks. However, recognising the need to counter the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, the Congress and NCP joined forces in a coalition government, ruling Maharashtra from 1999 to 2014.
This 15-year alliance, while electorally successful, was marred by allegations of corruption and inefficiency, leading to growing dissatisfaction among voters. Leaders like Vilasrao Deshmukh and Ashok Chavan tried to steer the coalition, but internal squabbles often overshadowed governance.
The Narendra Modi Wave
The 2014 general election marked a seismic shift in Indian politics, with Narendra Modi’s leadership propelling the BJP to power at the national level. Maharashtra, too, was swept up in the Modi wave, as the BJP won 23 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats, with its ally, the Shiv Sena, securing 18.
Later that year, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the Maharashtra assembly elections, winning 122 seats. The Shiv Sena, which won 63 seats, initially refused to support the BJP over a power-sharing dispute. Devendra Fadnavis became Maharashtra’s first BJP Chief Minister, leading a minority government. The Shiv Sena eventually joined the government, but tensions between the allies persisted.
The 2019 general elections saw a repeat of the Modi wave, with the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance securing 41 of Maharashtra’s 48 Lok Sabha seats. However, the state assembly elections later that year brought unexpected twists.
After the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena fell out over power-sharing disagreements, particularly the Shiv Sena’s demand for a rotational chief minister. The stalemate led the Shiv Sena to break ties with the BJP and form a surprising alliance with the Congress and NCP, creating the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
Uddhav Thackeray, leading the Shiv Sena, became chief minister, marking the first time a Thackeray family member held the state’s top position. The MVA was seen as an ideologically disparate coalition formed primarily to keep the BJP out of power.
Despite managing to govern for over two years, internal contradictions and external pressures eventually destabilised the alliance. In June 2022, the Shiv Sena suffered a major split when Eknath Shinde, a senior leader, led a rebellion with a significant number of MLAs. Shinde accused Uddhav Thackeray of compromising the party’s Hindutva ideology by allying with the Congress and NCP.
With BJP’s backing, Shinde’s faction toppled the MVA government. In a dramatic turn of events, Shinde became the chief minister, with Devendra Fadnavis as his deputy. This rebellion marked a significant blow to the Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, which was reduced to a smaller faction in the political landscape.
In July 2023, Maharashtra witnessed another political shock when Ajit Pawar, nephew of Sharad Pawar, broke away with a faction of NCP MLAs to join the BJP-Shiv Sena Shinde government. Ajit’s defection earned him the deputy chief minister post but deepened the divide within the NCP. This move strengthened the BJP’s Mahayuti coalition but also highlighted the BJP’s increasing reliance on regional leaders to maintain its influence in the state.
The 2024 general elections dealt a surprising blow to the BJP, as it faced significant losses in Maharashtra. Anti-incumbency, economic challenges, and fragmented alliances contributed to its decline. The Congress-NCP (Sharad Pawar faction)-Shiv Sena UBT alliance capitalised on this discontent, performing better than anticipated and signalling a possible resurgence of opposition forces in the state.
Current Scenario
Maharashtra’s political narrative is currently marked by uncertainty and volatility. The BJP, despite its earlier dominance, is grappling with challenges from reinvigorated opposition alliances. The Shiv Sena remains divided, with both factions struggling to assert their legitimacy. The Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) are seeking to rebuild their voter base while leveraging the BJP’s setbacks.
As Maharashtra approaches the next assembly elections, the state is poised for another round of intense political battles. With fractured loyalties, shifting alliances, and voter sentiment against incumbency, the stage is set for a highly unpredictable future.
