(Bloomberg) — A long-simmering border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia blew up Thursday as military operations escalated rapidly — with reports of F-16s, missiles, and artillery strikes across their shared frontier — resulting in the deaths of at least nine civilians.
Both Southeast Asian nations accused the other of starting the clashes, which were reported at six locations and follow a build up of tensions since a Cambodian soldier was killed in an exchange of gunfire in May.
Thailand said its fighter jets hit two Cambodian army bases near the border on Thursday, while Thai army reported that rockets fired from Cambodia killed several civilians, citing provincial authorities. The fatalities included an 8-year-old child, and 14 others were injured. The number of casualties on the Cambodian side remains unclear.
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Bangkok said in a statement that it’s prepared to “intensify” self-defense measures if Cambodia continues its attacks. Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Manet has asked the UN Security Council to convene an urgent meeting, citing Thailand’s “extremely grave aggressions.”
Both the US and China sent advisories to their citizens about the clash, with Beijing saying it was deeply concerned over the attacks.
Cambodia lacks air assets to counter Thailand’s advanced jets, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Zhu and George Ferguson wrote in a note, but the country possesses Chinese-made KS-1C air defense systems.
“The dispute is escalating rapidly and could turn into a serious conflict if left unattended,” said Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “Although the conflict is unlikely to spread beyond the two countries, it will disrupt trade and people movement, which will negatively affect the regional economy.”
Thailand’s baht and stocks fell on reports of clashes as they could further dent the outlook for an economy that’s already reeling from the threat of a 36% US tariff on its exports. The baht, which earlier rose to its highest since February 2022, declined as much as 0.4% to 32.285 per dollar. Stocks declined 1%.
The neighbors have a long history of border tensions, although relations have remained largely stable since the 2011 conflict, which left dozens dead. The last major flare-up centered on the Preah Vihear temple, a longstanding point of contention dating back to French colonial rule.
Much of the contemporary border disputes between the neighbors stem from different maps based on the text of the Franco-Siamese treaties of early 1900s that laid out the boundaries between Thailand and Cambodia, which was then part of the French Indochina.
Thailand also ordered the evacuation of civilians from at least four border provinces as a precautionary measure, the Interior Ministry said, while its embassy in Phnom Penh advised citizens to leave the country.
Cambodia’s defense ministry spokesperson Maly Socheata condemned the Thai military action, saying Thailand’s use of heavy weapons and deployment of troops “to encroach on Cambodian territory is a clear violation” of international law.
Since the clash in May, both countries have massed troops along the frontier and limited land crossings that serve as vital trade routes.
The fighting Thursday came just hours after Thailand expelled Cambodia’s ambassador and recalled its own envoy from Phnom Penh in response to a landmine explosion that injured five Thai soldiers on Wednesday.
In retaliation, Cambodia further downgraded diplomatic ties by withdrawing its diplomats, and requesting that Thailand do the same, according to Cambodian state media.
The dispute has also shaken Thailand’s domestic politics. A court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra pending an investigation into allegations of ethical misconduct in her handling of the border issue.
Paetongtarn had attempted to defuse tensions in a phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, but the call was leaked, sparking backlash at home and protests demanding her resignation. She has until July 31 to submit her defense in the court case.
After the clash in May, Cambodia called for the International Court of Justice in The Hague to help resolve four disputed land areas. Thailand, however, said it does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction in the matter.
Following a landmine incident last week in which a Thai soldier lost his leg, Thailand has initiated a diplomatic campaign targeting Cambodia. Bangkok has briefed foreign military attachés and diplomats stationed in the country and is seeking action under the United Nations’ Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention, while also engaging in bilateral efforts to resolve the dispute.
–With assistance from Jon Herskovitz.
(Corrects year in 10th paragraph to show there were more than one treaty.)
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