
NEW DELHI, 02/02/2025: People seen buying the vegetables at a market, as the Union Budget 2025-26 has allocated ₹1,348 crore to the National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi, reflecting an increase of ₹100 crore in loans and advances but maintaining grants-in-aid at the previous year’s level., in New Delhi on Sunday. Photo: Sushil Kumar Verma / The Hindu
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SUSHIL KUMAR VERMA
ndia’s Retail Inflation 2025, Retail Inflation outlook for July 2025 updates: Retail inflation dipped to an 8 year-low of 1.55 per cent in July. “The significant decline in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of July 2025 is mainly attributed to favourable base effect and to decline in inflation of pulses and products, transport and communication, vegetables, cereal and products, education, egg and sugar and confectionery,” a government statement said. Further, there is decline of 55 basis points in headline inflation of July, 2025 in comparison to June, 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation rate after June, 2017.
Here are the highlights:
– Food Inflation: Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for July 2025 over July 2024 is -1.76 per cent. Corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban are -1.74 per cent and -1.9 per cent, respectively. All India inflation rates for CPI (General) and CFPI over the last 13 months are shown below. A decline of 75 basis points is observed in food inflation in July 2025 compared to the previous month. July’s food inflation is the lowest since January 2019.
– Rural Inflation: Significant decline in headline and food inflation in rural sector observed in July 2025. Headline inflation in July stood at 1.18 per cent compared to 1.72 per cent last month. The CFPI based food inflation in rural sector was at -1.74 per cent in July 2025 (-0.87 per cent in June 2025).
– Urban Inflation: A decline from 2.56 per cent in June 2025 compared with 2.05 per cent in July 2025 was observed in urban sector’s headline inflation. Decline is also observed in food inflation from -1.17 per cent in June to -1.90 per cent in July.
– Housing Inflation: Year-on-year housing inflation rate July was 3.17 per cent (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of June was 3.18 per cent. The housing index is compiled only for the urban sector.
– Education Inflation: Year-on-year education inflation rate for July was 4 per cent, down from last month’s 4.37 per cent. Education inflation rate is calculated by combining the rates for both rural and urban sector.
– Health Inflation: Year-on-year health inflation rate for July 2025 was 4.57 per cent (Provisional), up from previous month’s 4.38 per cent. It is combined health inflation for both rural and urban sector.
Find here all the updates related to India’s July 2025 Retail Inflation.
- 20:20 | August 12, 2025
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- 16:38 | August 12, 2025
Retail inflation live updates: Health Inflation
Year-on-year Health inflation rate for the month of July, 2025 is 4.57 per cent (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of June, 2025 was 4.38 per cent. It is combined health inflation for both rural and urban sector.
- 16:37 | August 12, 2025
Education Inflation numbers:
Year-on-year Education inflation rate for the month of July, 2025 is 4 per cent. Corresponding inflation rate for the month of June, 2025 was 4.37 per cent. It is combined education inflation for both rural and urban sector.
- 16:34 | August 12, 2025
Retail Inflation Live Updates: Housing Inflation
Year-on-year Housing inflation rate for the month of July, 2025 is 3.17 per cent (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of June, 2025 was 3.18 per cent. The housing index is compiled for urban sector only.
- 16:30 | August 12, 2025
Retail Inflation Live Updates: Urban Inflation
A decline from 2.56 per cent in June, 2025 to 2.05 per cent in July, 2025 is observed in headline inflation of urban sector. Decline is also observed in food inflation from -1.17 per cent in June, 2025 to -1.90 per cent in July, 2025.
- 16:29 | August 12, 2025
Retail Inflation Live: Rural Inflation
Significant decline in headline and food inflation in rural sector observed in July, 2025. The headline inflation is 1.18 per cent in July, 2025 while the same was 1.72 per cent in June, 2025. The CFPI based food inflation in rural sector is observed as -1.74 per cent in July, 2025 in comparison to -0.87 per cent in June, 2025.
- 16:27 | August 12, 2025
CPI Inflation Live Updates: Food Inflation
Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for the month of July, 2025 over July, 2024 is -1.76 per cent. Corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban are -1.74 per cent and -1.9 per cent, respectively. All India inflation rates for CPI (General) and CFPI over the last 13 months are shown below. A decline of 75 basis points is observed in food inflation in July, 2025 in comparison to June, 2025. The food inflation in July, 2025 is the lowest after January, 2019.
- 16:22 | August 12, 2025
Retail inflation Live Updates: Retail inflation slows to 8-year low of 1.55% in July
- 16:04 | August 12, 2025
Retail Inflation Live Updates: India’s Retail inflation dips to 1.55% in July, lowest since June 2017
- 15:45 | August 12, 2025
Gold firms as investors await key US inflation data
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, after a sharp selloff in the previous session, as investors focused on U.S. inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,349.13 per ounce, as of 0904 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were steady at $3,398.90.
Bullion slid 1.6% to a more than one-week low on Monday, while futures dropped more than 2%, after U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out tariffs on imported bullion. (Reuters)
- 15:37 | August 12, 2025
CPI Inflation Live Updates: Romanian central bank rate cut not possible this year, governor says
A further cut to Romanian interest rates is not possible this year, central bank Governor Mugur Isarescu said on Tuesday after presenting the bank’s new forecasts showing stronger price growth this year.
- 15:20 | August 12, 2025
India’s net direct tax collections fall 4% on year from April-August
India’s net direct tax collections fell 4% year-on-year to 6.64 trillion rupees ($75.79 billion) between April 1 and August 11, as personal income tax cuts and a deferred payment deadline weighed on receipts.
Direct taxes, which include corporate and personal tax, fell nearly 2% year-on-year to 7.99 trillion rupees on a gross basis during the period, the income tax department said in a statement.
The government said it had issued tax refunds worth 1.35 trillion rupees during the period, about 10% higher than last year, it said.
India has projected a near 13% increase in direct taxes to 25.2 trillion in the financial year 2025-26.
The personal tax cuts announced in the budget along with benign inflation have led to lower collections, said Paras Jasrai, an economist at India Ratings.
The government has deferred the due date for filing tax returns, which could be another reason for the drop in tax collections, Jasrai said, adding that revenues will start seeing an uptick in October to December.
India in February announced cuts to personal income tax, saying individuals with annual earnings of up to 1.28 million rupees would be exempt from paying tax. (Reuters)
- 15:15 | August 12, 2025
Tax hikes, electricity prices lifting Romanian inflation forecasts, says Romanian central bank governor
Tax hikes by the Romanian government will add at least 4 percentage points to inflation in 2025, central bank Governor Mugur Isarescu said on Tuesday after presenting the bank’s new forecasts shower stronger price growth this year.
He said a rise of electricity prices after the end of a cap will add at least 2 percentage points to inflation, while also saying there were disinflationary pressures coming from the demand side of the economy. (Reuters)
- 15:02 | August 12, 2025
The July India consumer price index (CPI) data due Tuesday is expected to show inflation at its slowest pace in eight years, at 1.76%.
- 14:46 | August 12, 2025
US Stock Futures Waver in Lead-Up to CPI Print
US stock futures edged higher, mirroring the subdued tone across most asset classes, as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of Tuesday’s inflation report that could reshape expectations for interest rate cuts.
Contracts for the S&P 500 rose 0.2%. The dollar traded flat. US Treasuries saw muted action with the yield on 10-year notes dropping less than one basis point to 4.28%. Gold ticked higher. (Bloomberg)
- 13:53 | August 12, 2025
Real rural wage growth adjusted for food inflation rose to a six-year high of 4.5 per cent while agricultural terms of trade “worsened” on lower food prices in the June quarter
- 13:36 | August 12, 2025
Retail Inflation Live Updates: Sensex, Nifty 50 swing as investors eye inflation data, auto stocks lead rally
Equity benchmark indices staged volatility as investors await US and domestic inflation data. A SBI report recently pointed out that CPI inflation is expected to remain below 3 per cent till the third quarter of FY26. Market experts emphasised that market volatility remains high as investors keep a close watch for developments pertaining to US tariffs.
- 13:22 | August 12, 2025
Currency markets brace for US inflation data
Currency markets were in a holding pattern on Tuesday, with traders’ reluctance to make large bets ahead of U.S. inflation data – important for Federal Reserve policy expectations – capping moves after UK jobs data and an Australian rate cut.
A moderate reading on U.S. price pressures could cement bets for a Fed rate reduction next month, which increased after last week’s soft payrolls data.
But if signs emerge that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are stoking inflation, that could pressure the central bank to stay on hold. That in turn would fuel further tensions with Trump, who has urged the Fed to cut rates.
Economists polled by Reuters expect core CPI to have risen 0.3% in July, pushing the annual rate higher to 3%, and traders currently put the odds of a quarter-point rate cut on September 17 at about 89%. (Reuters)
Ahead of the data, due at 1230 GMT, the dollar was up 0.1% to 148.31 yen, while the euro was flat at $1.1613.
Sterling was also steady at $1.3434, little moved by data that showed Britain’s jobs market weakened further, albeit more slowly, while wage growth stayed strong – the latter underscoring why the Bank of England is so cautious about cutting interest rates.
The numbers seem unlikely to change expectations for the BoE, which cut rates only last week in a tight 5-4 vote.
Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said there were “marginal positives” in the data and there was nothing to suggest labour market loosening was accelerating, but he added “we aren’t out of the woods yet”.
- 12:40 | August 12, 2025
Norway’s core inflation keeps pace, matching Central Bank view
Norway’s underlying inflation kept its pace in July in line with projections by the country’s central bank, backing the case for officials to keep reducing borrowing costs next month.
Underlying consumer-price growth excluding energy stayed put at to 3.1% last month, according to data from the statistics office on Monday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had a median forecast of 3%, while Norges Bank expected a 3.1% gain.
The economy of western Europe’s largest energy exporter has until recent months largely weathered the fallout from high borrowing costs. It’s also less dependent on trade with the US than its Nordic peers, reducing potential impact from the global tariff war.
Still, recent data has suggested retail sales are weakening, while unemployment is rising and industrial sentiment worsening, adding to factors that support further rate cuts.
The headline inflation rate accelerated to a five-month high of 3.3%, while analysts had expected it to stay at 3% and the central bank saw a 3.1% gain. (Bloomberg)
- 12:15 | August 12, 2025
Rupee nudges up, forward premiums dip before inflation doubleheader
The Indian rupee inched higher on Tuesday, while forward premiums slipped, with traders focusing more on upcoming U.S. inflation reading than on India’s data, given the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
The rupee was quoting at 87.6425 at 11.22 am IST, up slightly from 87.66 on Monday. The currency had opened a tad weaker at 87.7050. The implied yield on the one-year dollar/rupee forward premium was down 2 basis points at 2.06%.
The July India consumer price index (CPI) data due Tuesday is expected to show inflation at its slowest pace in eight years, at 1.76%. Traders said the number will have little impact on either spot or forwards since the soft print is already priced in.
“Positioning in forwards is fairly light, and the direction will largely hinge on what happens with U.S. rates,” said a currency forwards trader at a bank.
The U.S. July data, due after the release of India’s report, is expected to show that core inflation rose at the pace of 0.3%.
The numbers come after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, which has bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month and at least once more in the last quarter of 2025. Investors have priced in a 90% chance of a rate cut in September.
ING Bank is forecasting a 0.4% core print, which it said would place higher emphasis on subsequent data “and may limit further dovish repricing in the near term, though should not materially reverse September cut bets.”
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have added uncertainty to the inflation outlook, complicating the Fed’s policy path.
While recent data suggests the labour market is cooling, the pass-through from higher import costs could keep price pressures elevated, forcing policymakers to weigh the risks of cutting rates too quickly. (Reuters)
- 12:02 | August 12, 2025
Romanian inflation rises above expectations at 7.84% y/y in July
Romania’s consumer price inflation rose 7.84% on the year in July from 5.66% the previous month, exceeding expectations, data from the National Statistics Board showed on Tuesday.
The median forecast of a Reuters poll of analysts put Romanian inflation at 6.40% year-on-year, above the central bank’s 1.5%-3.5% target.
Data showed prices rose 2.68% on the month in June, with food prices up 0.39%, non-food prices up 5.06% and services up 1.01%. (Reuters)
- 11:45 | August 12, 2025
Comprehensive land reforms are imperative for India’s competitiveness, says CII
In order to boost manufacturing in India, industry body, Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) on Sunday has advocated for comprehensive land reforms. This will help to capitalise on emerging opportunities and march towards the goal of Viksit Bharat by 2047, it said.
Manufacturing leads the secondary sector which also has electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services and construction as constituents. This sector has a share of over 25 per cent in GDP with manufacturing alone has a share of around 17 per cent.
- 11:32 | August 12, 2025
CPI Retail Inflation Live Updates: India household consumption set to pick up in 2-3 quarters: Report
The overall household consumption is set to pick up in the next two to three quarters on rural strength, a Swiss brokerage said on Tuesday.
Softened inflation, which boosts purchasing power, improving crop outlook on good monsoons and a $20 billion social welfare spends on women are set to strengthen rural consumption, UBS Securities said in a report.
- 11:22 | August 12, 2025
RBI survey shows uptick in urban consumer confidence in July 2025
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday released the results of its July 2025 round of the Urban Consumer Confidence Survey (UCCS), which showed a marginal improvement in the sentiment of urban households.
According to the bi-monthly survey conducted between July 1-12 across 19 major cities, covering 5,592 respondents, the Current Situation Index (CSI) rose to 96.5 in July from 95.4 in May, marking a 1.1-point increase. The improvement was attributed to better consumer perceptions on income, spending, and general economic conditions, despite persisting concerns on employment and price levels.
- 11:09 | August 12, 2025
Equity benchmarks muted as gains in IT stocks offset a pullback in heavyweight financials after a rally in the previous session, while investors awaited key US and domestic inflation data.
The Nifty 50 was up 0.05% at 24,596.3 points and the BSE Sensex added 0.04% to 80,636.03, as of 10:39 a.m. IST.
Twelve of the 16 major sectors logged marginal gains. The broader small- and mid-caps traded flat.
Financials, which rose 0.9% in the previous session, fell 0.6% on Tuesday.
IT companies, which receive a substantial chunk of their revenue from the U.S., rose 0.75%, buoyed by the U.S.-China trade truce.
The extension of the truce averts triple-digit duties that slowed down growth in the U.S., stoked inflation, and delayed corporate discretionary spending, including on technology.
All eyes will also be on U.S. CPI data later in the day, which is likely to influence the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path. Lower U.S. rates typically boost the appeal of emerging market equities, including India, as yields on U.S. Treasuries fall.
Analysts said any recovery in Indian equities will be limited as investors await talks between the U.S. and Russian presidents on Friday.
“The 90-day extension of trade truce between U.S. and China is positive news (for sectors like IT). However, we do not expect a major rally as the main event that markets are focused on is Trump-Putin meeting in mid August,” said Pankaj Pandey, head of retail research at ICICI Securities.
The caution comes as the U.S. last week announced fresh 25% tariffs on India, taking the total to 50%, for its Russian oil purchases.
Investors also await India’s July retail inflation data, due after market hours, with a Reuters poll forecasting an eight-year low of 1.76% on cooling food prices. (Reuters)
- 11:00 | August 12, 2025
Indian household inflation expectations exhibit systematic upward bias: RBI study
The inflation expectations of Indian households exhibit systematic upward bias, compared to professionals and businesses even in periods of stable or low inflation, according to a study by RBI officials.
- 10:38 | August 12, 2025
Retail Inflation Live Updates: Indian households see easing price pressures: RBI Survey
Indian households have perceived and expected a decline in inflation levels, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s July 2025 round of its bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH).
The survey, conducted between July 1-12 across 19 major cities, covering 5,197 valid responses, indicates a broad-based easing of inflationary concerns. The median perception of current inflation dropped by 50 basis points to 7.2 per cent in July from 7.7 per cent in May 2025.
- 10:25 | August 12, 2025
Retail Inflation Live Updates: Sales of affordable homes may be hit with likely impact of US tariff on MSMEs employees: Anarock
Affordable home sales are likely to be hit by the proposed US tariffs on Indian exports, which will hurt small businesses and income of their staff who are major buyers of housing properties costing up to ₹45 lakh, according to realty consultant Anarock.
Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) account for a significant chunk of goods exports to the US, and a higher tariff will mean their products becoming less competitive. Such a scenario will result in reduced business orders and, in turn, adversely impact the staff employed by these enterprises.
In a statement on Monday, Anarock pointed out that sales and launches of affordable homes have already gone down post-COVID-19 pandemic.
Out of 1.9 lakh housing units sold in the first half of 2025 across seven major cities, only 34,565 units were in the affordable category, as per the Anarock data.
- 10:17 | August 12, 2025
Inflation Live Updates: Tractor sales decline month-on-month in July on seasonality
Tractor sales declined by nearly 40 per cent in July to 72,797 units as against 1,21,613 in June. However, the July 2025 number was up by nearly 8 per cent when compared with 67,952 reported in July of 2024, according to Tractor and Mechanisation Association data.
Tractor sales follow a cyclical pattern, peaking in June, post-harvest in May, as farmers prepare for the next sowing cycle. After a slow July, sales rebound from August onwards, with the festive season typically witnessing the highest sales, said an official.
- 10:07 | August 12, 2025
CPI Inflation Live Updates: Inflation is likely to edge up above 4 per cent by Q4FY26
RBI Governor has expressed, “Inflation is likely to edge up above 4 per cent by Q4FY26 and beyond, as unfavourable base effects and demand side factors from policy actions come into play.”
- 09:54 | August 12, 2025
Inflation Live Updates: With 90% of normal area covered, India’s kharif crops sowing up 4% year-on-year
Helped by continuous surplus rains in most parts of the country after mid-June, farmers have covered over 90 per cent of the normal area of about 1,097 lakh hectares (lh) so far in the ongoing kharif season, the Agriculture Ministry said.
Experts are hoping for a normal yield, despite some reports of crop damage in some States. However, if there is excess rain during pre-harvest period in September, standing crops may face the risk of disease.
- 09:38 | August 12, 2025
Retail Inflation Live Updates: US to release its inflation data today. It’ll arrive later in the day after the markets close in India
July’s consumer price index, due on Tuesday, will give traders clues on how President Donald Trump’s tariffs are affecting costs. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the annual core inflation rate to rise to 3%, the highest since February. (Bloomberg)
- 09:33 | August 12, 2025
Retail Inflation Live Updates: Government bonds are expected to inch lower before the release of India’s inflation data, while traders will also eye the US consumer price data due after market hours
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond is likely to move between 6.40% and 6.45%, compared with Monday’s close of 6.4398%, the highest since April 11.
Bond yields move inversely to prices. (Reuters)
- 09:25 | August 12, 2025
Wholesale inflation in country likely declined to 2-year low to -0.45% in July: UBI Report
Wholesale inflation in India likely fell to a near two-year low in July 2025, driven by a sharp drop in food and fuel prices, according to a report by Union Bank of India.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is estimated to have declined to -0.45 per cent year-on-year (y/y) in July, compared to -0.13 per cent in June, marking the lowest level in almost two years.
- 09:23 | August 12, 2025
RBI cuts retail inflation projection for FY26 by 60 bps to 3.1%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its CPI inflation projection for FY26 to 3.1 per cent from the 3.7 per cent projected earlier even as it retained the real GDP growth at 6.5 per cent.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra observed that the inflation outlook for FY26 has become more benign than expected in June.
- 09:14 | August 12, 2025
CPI Inflation Live: Cooling food prices likely reduced retail inflation to an eight-year low of 1.76 per cent in July
This is below the Reserve Bank of India’s 2-6 per cent tolerance band for the first time in more than six years, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
- 09:09 | August 12, 2025
Indian benchmarks indices likely to open flat ahead of release of domestic inflation data
Indian equity benchmarks are likely to open flat on Tuesday, chiming trends in broader Asian markets, as investors await domestic inflation data for July and a key US inflation print that could influence near-term interest rate expectations.
The Gift Nifty futures were trading at 24,599.5, as of 7:53 a.m. IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 will open near Monday’s close of 24,585.05.
- 09:06 | August 12, 2025
July Inflation Live Updates: CPI inflation in July likely to hit historical low, FY26 to be at 3% below RBI estimate of 3.7%: SBI
India’s retail inflation is expected to reach a record low in July 2025, with the average inflation for the financial year 2025-26 projected to be significantly lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimate, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI).
“We believe that the upcoming July 2025 CPI inflation data is set to breach the lowest ever historical print,” the report said.
Published on August 12, 2025