Rainfall over India is likely to be above normal, exceeding 106% of the long period average in July, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday, in a forecast that should bring cheer to farmers, likely boost the rural economy, and keep inflation down.
With June rains exceeding normal by 8.9%, the July forecast means this year’s rainfall from the Southwest Monsoon could meet the weather office’s April estimate of being above normal. Overall June rain was 8.9% excess, with 42.2% excess over northwest India; 24.8% excess over central India; 2.7% deficiency over south peninsula and 16.9% deficiency over east and northeast India.
The long period average or LPA in July for the country, based on data from 1971 to 2020 is about 280.4 mm. “Many parts of the country are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall. However, most parts of northeast India and many parts of east India, extreme south peninsular India and some areas of northwest India are likely to receive below normal rainfall,” IMD officials said on Monday.
July is the main monsoon month and normally records 28 cm of the total LPA of 87 cm for the four monsoon months–June, July, August and September. It is also a critical month for agriculture as sowing of paddy and other kharif (monsoon sown) crops takes place during July. The monsoon is critical for India’s economy with 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, being rain-fed.
IMD has however warned of flooding in Uttarakhand, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi , parts of east Central India including Odisha, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and parts of Maharashtra .
“Our long range forecast indicates that Uttarakhand, Haryana-Chandigarh-Haryana region and several parts of central and east central India will receive above-normal rain. We should take care and there should be continuous monitoring. There are several river basins in these areas, rivulets are also flowing here and hence reservoirs need continuous monitoring so that there is timely release of excess water,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
“It is also important to note that there are several south flowing rivers in Uttarakhand and there are important towns and cities along these rivers. We need to be cautious. Do not be complacent,” added Mohapatra. The Ganga and Yamuna also originate in Uttarakhand.
Both day and night temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal in many areas in July, IMD said. “Monthly average maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal in many regions, except northeast India and some areas of the northwest, east and southern peninsula, where they are likely to be above normal,” IMD said.
“Minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal over many parts of the country. However, above normal minimum temperatures are likely over Northeast India, many parts of south peninsular India and some parts of Northwest, East and Central India,” IMD added in its forecast.
June was relatively cool. Average maximum temperature during June (34.11 degree C) was 36th lowest and average minimum temperature (24.88 degree C) was 86th lowest since 1901. Mean temperature was also 57th lowest for the country. Rainfall in June was around 9% excess over the country. Around 70 stations reported extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) and 432 stations reported very heavy rain (15 to 20 cm).
As HT has previously reported, aggregate rainfall hides regional disparities.
