Cochin Shipyard shares may fall nearly 60% as major orders lack, an analyst projects


Shares of Cochin Shipyard Ltd., the state-run defence company, which have surged for six straight sessions, are likely to fall nearly 60% from current levels, brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities wrote in a note on Friday, May 16.

The stock has gained 35% during the last six trading sessions.

Cochin Shipyard’s fourth quarter results were in-line with expectations as their margin performance was weaker than what was anticipated. This was due to higher provisions, which was offset by higher other income, Kotak wrote in its note.

The brokerage cited ship repair orders for INS Vikrant and Vikramaditya, have been the key to Cochin Shipyard’s performance so far this year. “But these contracts are one-time in nature and the lack of naval orders remain a concern,” the Kotak note said.
Any potential tie-up with Korean shipbuilders, Maersk or Drydocks World could be the next catalyst for the stock.

Kotak also went on to add citing media articles that the Indian Navy has shelved its plans to operate three aircraft carriers simultaneously, and is instead prioritising the development of a second indigenous aircraft carrier as a future replacement for INS Vikramaditya.

“Cochin Shipyard has not won any major defence orders over the last two years, with order inflow primarily driven by small-sized commercial shipping and defense ship repair orders,” the brokerage said, lowering its financial year 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates by 3% and 6% respectively, to factor in the moderation in shipbuilding revenue on lack of defence ordering.

Kotak Institutional Equities has raised its price target higher from Cochin Shipyard to ₹850 from ₹830. The revised price target implies a potential downside of nearly 60% from current levels.

Out of the five analysts that have coverage on Cochin Shipyard, three of them have a “buy” rating on the stock, while one analyst each has a “hold” and “sell” rating.

Shares of Cochin Shipyard are trading 8% higher on Friday at ₹1,953.8. The stock is now up 25% so far in 2025. Despite this upmove, the stock is still 35% below its all-time high level of ₹2,979.



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