Trade Setup for February 13: Nifty can rebound to 23,600 only on sustaining above a key level


The Indian equity market demonstrated resilience in a highly volatile session, though ultimately closing marginally lower. After showing a sharp decline in the last five sessions, the Nifty witnessed high volatility and a smart upside recovery on Wednesday. The index extended its downward trend for the sixth straight session, but the day’s trading pattern revealed significant underlying strength.

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The index opened slightly lower and faced intense selling pressure in early trading, falling more than 250 points within the first hour. However, a dramatic reversal began after 10:30 am, with the Nifty staging an impressive recovery of 350 points from its intraday low of 22,798.

Nifty held above 23,000, supported mainly by financial stocks. Eventually, the index settled at 23,045, recording a modest decline of 26 points or 0.12%.

Market closed in the red but sharply off lows. The mid- and small-cap segments demonstrated similar resilience. Despite early turbulence, both indices recovered substantially from their intraday lows—the Midcap index bounced back 2.8%, while the Smallcap index surged 3.5%. However, both indices still ended the day lower, with a 0.26% decline.

Among individual stocks, Reliance Industries emerged as the primary drag on the index, declining 1.5%, while Mahindra & Mahindra experienced the steepest fall of 3.2%. Insurance stocks surged as the I-T Bill retained the existing corporate tax rate.

Metal, PSU Banks, and Financial Services showed strength sector-wise, while the Realty, Oil and Gas, and Auto sectors faced selling pressure. Most auto stocks remained under selling pressure, with M&M and Eicher Motors among the top losers.

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) shares ended nearly 2% lower amid volatility. HAL reported its December quarter results on Wednesday, February 12, which showed an increase on a year-on-year basis across all parameters. However, the share price declined following the Indian Air Force’s complaint about delays in the delivery of Tejas fighter jets manufactured by the state-owned company. This prompted HAL to assure that deliveries would begin soon, as technical issues had been resolved.

Persistent selling by FIIs, coupled with mixed earnings, continues to weigh on market sentiment, while uncertain global cues added to the pressure.

Foreign investors continued to remain net sellers in the cash market on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors were net buyers.


What does the Nifty 50 charts indicate?

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said the underlying trend of the Nifty is still weak. “But the interesting pattern formation at the support of 22,800 could hint at a possibility of reversal pattern from current levels or from slightly lows. A confirmation of reversal pattern could possibly open a sizable upside bounce in the market. Immediate support is placed at 22,800 levels. A sustainable move above 23,150-23,200 levels could open more upside for the short term.”

The Nifty remains below key moving averages, highlighting a weaker outlook. The broader trend remains bearish unless a decisive close above 23,500 is attained, said Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities.

“However, the hourly chart indicates a potential short-term rebound, with a break above 23,150 likely to initiate an upward move towards the 23,320–23,400 range,” Mehra said.

“On the lower end, the index found support just above the previous swing low. Until the previous low of 22,786 is broken decisively, the chances are high that Nifty might recover towards 23,500–23,600 in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 23,200, while immediate support is at 23,000,” said Rupak De of LKP Securities.

The Nifty formed a double bottom around 22,800 before recovering to close above the psychologically important 23,000 mark. Looking ahead, the 5-day EMA at 23,255 presents immediate resistance, while the 22,800 level serves as a crucial support zone to monitor in the coming sessions, said Devarsh Vakil of HDFC Securities.

What does the Nifty Bank charts indicate?

The Nifty Bank ended the session at 49,479.45, up 0.15%. The index remains below key moving averages, suggesting that a decisive recovery is yet to take shape. The Nifty Bank is holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 49,270, indicating near-term support.

“The hourly chart suggests a positive setup, with an upside move towards 50,150 likely unless 48,730 is breached. The short-term trend remains neutral to slightly negative, but a pullback is expected in the next session, provided key support levels hold firm,” Mehra said.

Here are the stocks to watch ahead of Thursday’s trading session:

Kotak Mahindra Bank: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced the removal of the supervisory restrictions imposed on Kotak Mahindra Bank, allowing the lender to resume its business operations that were previously curtailed.

ICICI Bank says, JV partner Prudential PLC is evaluating potential listing of ICICI Prudential Asset Management. ICICI Bank to retain majority stake in ICICI Prudential AMC.

Reliance sets up an arm ‘REC Sustainable Energy Solutions Pte’ in Singapore to set up a global capability centre for consolidating research and development (R&D) activities, facilitating the recruitment of global talent, and providing technical and procurement services to support the Company’s new energy initiatives.

Bharat Forge signs MoU with VEDA Aeronautics to develop unmanned aerial vehicles and other high-speed aerial weapon systems used in the battlefield.

Tata Power: Arm Tata Power Renewable signs MoU with ONGC to explore joint opportunities in Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) and its value chain.

Vakrangee: RBI extends validity of authorisation to setup, own & operate White Label ATMs in India till March 31, 2026.



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