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University of Reading scientists warn climate change is increasing jet stream instability, raising clear-air turbulence risks for flights, with incidents already up 55% since 1979
Mid-flight turbulence incidents have risen by 55% since 1979. (Pixabay/Representative Image)
If you have ever been mid-air when the plane suddenly jolted like a fish thrashing in water, you have experienced turbulence, one of the most unnerving moments in aviation. Now, scientists warn that such episodes could become far more common as the planet warms.
A new study by researchers at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom has found that climate change is disrupting high-altitude jet streams, the powerful bands of wind that circle the Earth and guide aircraft across continents. Shifts in these winds, the study suggests, are making the atmosphere increasingly unstable, raising the risk of dangerous turbulence for passengers and crew.
Earlier research from the same university had already shown that serious turbulence incidents rose by about 55 percent between 1979 and 2020. The latest findings, published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, estimate that by the end of this century, jet stream wind shear could increase by 16 to 27 percent while overall atmospheric stability could decline by 10 to 20 percent. These changes, scientists say, are expected across both hemispheres.
Joanna Medeiros, the study’s lead author and a PhD researcher, explained that the combination of stronger wind shear and weaker atmospheric stability provides ideal conditions for clear-air turbulence (CAT), a particularly dangerous form of turbulence because it strikes without warning and cannot be detected by radar. Unlike turbulence caused by storms, CAT can leave pilots and passengers unprepared, making it harder to avoid injuries.
The team relied on 26 global climate models to reach their conclusions, finding that the most significant effects of warming are concentrated around 35,000 feet, the cruising altitude for most commercial jets.
Professor Paul Williams, co-author and a leading atmospheric scientist, noted that turbulence has already caused severe injuries and, in rare cases, deaths in recent years. “In light of what we know, it is likely that pilots will need to keep the seatbelt sign on more frequently in the decades ahead,” he warned.
The findings suggest that for air travel, the skies of the future may not be as smooth as passengers once hoped.
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